This blog examines the business implications of IT service trends ranging from software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud computing to managed services and other on-demand services.

July 13, 2010

Yes – The SaaS ‘Experiment’ Is Over

For the past two weeks, I’ve been debating whether to respond to a commentary in InfoWorld by Neil McAllister which asked, “Is the SaaS Experiment Finally Over?”

But, I couldn’t hold back any longer when one of the many online publications where I’m a contributor, eBizQ, posed the question in a more provocative fashion, “Is SaaS Dead?”

I couldn’t bring myself to respond to McAllister’s column when it was first published because his argument was so ludicrous. He alluded to a variety of past SaaS and cloud vendor service outages to raise concerns about the overall viability of these rapidly expanding markets. And he used a series of Gartnerisms to warn against developer migration to the SaaS model.  

Yet, McAllister ignores the pervasive failures of traditional on-premise software which has inspired organizations of all sizes to explore and increasingly adopt SaaS alternatives to better meet their corporate needs.

The truth is that Gartner has been wrong about SaaS since the beginning. Even today, it has failed to fully recognize the current rate of SaaS adoption because they only talk to their traditional IT clients who are still trying to resist today’s trends because they see them as a threat to their jobs.

For instance, I reported earlier this year about Pacific Crest’s CIO survey which found that they expect to spend approximately 30% of their software budgets on SaaS in 2010, while Gartner is still predicting that organizations will only spend 25% of their budgets on SaaS by 2012.

Gartner also refuses to recognize the growing array of customer success stories which clearly illustrate the tangible and measurable business benefits being generated by SaaS and the broader cloud computing services.

Meanwhile, THINKstrategies has been recognizing SaaS and cloud computing providers nearly every week for the past year and a half which are delivering these business benefits worldwide through our Best of SaaS Showplace (BoSS) and Cloud Computing Business Value Award programs.

Rather than acknowledge the benefits of SaaS, and other cloud computing services, Gartner prefers to publish endless warnings which simply propose commonsense vendor selection and management principles.

The fact is that the SaaS ‘experiment’ is definitely over. It is now a mainstream movement.

Just take a look at the growth of Salesforce.com and SuccessFactors. Or, check out how NetSuite and Workday are encroaching on SAP. Listen to CIOs who are frustrated with being in the server business and want to shift into the services business.

And, pay attention to the major moves which the ‘legacy’ hardware and software players–led by IBM, HP, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP–are taking to transform and even cannibalize their traditional business to respond to rapidly escalating customer demands for change.

Yes, the SaaS experiment is over. It is now for real.

May 3, 2010

Gartner – SaaS Will Achieve 95% Renewal Rates

Once again Gartner is late to the party with its ‘bold’ predictions and customer surveys.

Gartner’s latest findings show that 95% of customers currently using Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions are likely to renew these services. THINKstrategies and Cutter Consortium surveys found this out three years ago.

In fact, anyone who really understands the SaaS market, knows that SaaS companies cannot survive unless they keep customer churn to a minimum which means achieving 90%+ renewal rates.

But, Gartner’s survey research still helps to validate the viability of today’s SaaS alteratives in the eyes of the old-guard IT decision-makers who tend to take Gartner’s word as gospel. It clearly shows that the SaaS market isn’t the latest overhyped idea, but a user-driven movement which is fundamentally reshaping the software industry.

This research will open the door wider for greater customer adoption of SaaS solutions and put even more pressure on legacy software vendors to add SaaS solutions to their corporate portfolios.

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December 27, 2009

A SaaS/Cloud Computing Scorecard for 2009

Since 2009 is coming to a close, I thought it would be a good time to review how I did with my predictions for the year regarding the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and cloud computing market.

1. On-Demand Services Move From Why To How

According to a Sandhill.com/McKinsey survey of over 850 enterprise customers at the end of 2008, 74% were already favorably disposed to adopting SaaS platforms. As a result, Gartner estimates the SaaS market will have reached approximately $8 billion at the end of 2009, a 21.9% rise from $6.6 billion in 2008. Looks like folks have moved past “why” SaaS to “how” to get the most out of their SaaS deployments.

2. New Hybrid Models

The idea of hybrid SaaS and cloud computing models has been abhorred by industry purists, but the reality is that nearly every business will rely on a combination of on-premise and on-demand resources. In 2009, the concept of “location independence” became bi-directional. It not only means that businesses can move their software and systems to the cloud, but they can now also deploy SaaS and cloud computing solutions behind their firewalls via appliances or ‘applets’. This will enable them to meet their business requirements and satisfy their psychological biases. More importantly, it will exponentially expand the addressable market for SaaS solutions and cloud computing services.

3. Short-Term Slowdown, Long-Term Growth

This is not an easy one to quantify because many SaaS/cloud computing businesses are privately held or operate within bigger companies. However, the publicly-traded SaaS players saw continued albeit slower growth. As the VCs like to say, “flat is the new up!”

4. VC/PE Retrenchment

The VCs were also very concerned in 2009 about how they spent their “dry powder”. As a result, they invested in fewer start-ups and only “topped off” a handful of existing SaaS/cloud computing portfolio companies who they believe hold the greatest promise of a solid exit. The most notorious casualty of this strategy in 2009 was LucidEra, who pioneered the SaaS business intelligence (BI) market, but was not able to generate enough sales to win a new round of funding.

5. Industry Shake-Out and Consolidation

There were many other examples of company failures and acquisitions to illustrate the consolidation and shake-out of the SaaS and cloud computing industry. For instance, Xactly acquired Centiveand Makana Solutions disappeared in the sales compensation segment of the market. NetSuite also acquired and merged together OpenAir and QuickArrow in the professional services automation (PSA) market. 

6. Acquisitions/Alliances Accelerate

There were also a number of interesting alliances initiated in 2009. One of the most innovative was Intacct’s partnership with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA)and its subsidiary CPA2Biz who named Intacct as its preferred provider of financial applications. This alliance gives Intacct access to a vast network CPAs who can serve as referral agents. It also gave the SaaS and cloud computing movement an important endorsement among one of the most conservative yet influential professions.

7. Focus On The Channel

The AICPA/Intacct alliance was just one of many new channel arrangements in the SaaS and cloud computing market. A number of SaaS vendors also launched or expanded their VAR programs in 2009. The most newsworthy was Salesforce.com’s new VAR program aimed at broadening the company’s reach beyond its direct sales team.

8. The Google Generation Becomes Mainstream

Google intensified its focus on cultivating a new generation of office workers via its free Google Apps for educators and the government. It is also teaming with Verizon to offer Android-powered cellphones to capture a share of the market and compete against the iPhone tidalwave.

9. Software/Business/Information/Managed Services Convergence

The convergence of software, business and information services has been evolving for a while. The best example of how this process is manifesting itself is Thomson-Reuters’ use of Salesforce.com’s Force.com platform to create and deliver a new wealth management service to its customers. ConnectWise has also emerged as a major proponent for SaaS and cloud computing in the managed services arena to make it easier for IT workers to do their jobs.

10. Obama Policies Promote On-Demand Services

President Obama’s CIO, Vivek Kundra, told the Wall Street Journal in March 2009, “I’m all about the cloud computing notion. I look at my lifestyle, and I want access to information wherever I am. I am killing projects that don’t investigate SaaS first.” In September, Kundra followed through on his promise to foster the use of on-demand services in the federal government by launching a new online marketplace of SaaS applications and cloud computing services, www.apps.gov.

Looks like I did pretty well with my predictions. Of course, I wouldn’t be reviewing them if I knew I had done poorly!

With my past success now behind me, I’ll post my predictions for the new year and decade ahead soon. Stay tuned.

October 20, 2009

It’s Official: Gartner Names Cloud Computing Top Strategic Technology for 2010

One of my favorite events of the year used to be Gartner’s Symposium in Orlando because of the locale and multi-day immersion in IT prognostications.

While I often disagreed with the POV of Gartner’s analysts, I found it useful to hear what they had to say because of their influence over enterprise IT and business decision-makers.

The past few years, I intentionally stayed away from the event because Gartner had fallen so behind the rapidly changing marketplace when it comes to Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and cloud computing. Instead, I’ve enjoyed referring to Gartner as a ‘lagging indicator’ of market trends.

However, I was very pleased to read the news today that Gartner has put cloud computing at the top of its list of top strategic technologies for 2010.

Although I could discard this announcement as another example of Gartner’s slow recognition of key market trends, I also believe that it clearly moves Gartner’s thinking about the cloud computing market beyond the ‘peak of inflated expectations’ and ‘trough of disillusionment’ onto the ’slope of enlightment’ in its infamous hype-cycle.

(Of course, I’ve been suggesting in my presentations to client and industry audiences that IT and business decision-makers have been on this slope of enlightenment for more than a year.)

What is also worth noting is that eight of the other nine strategic technologies for 2010 identified by Gartner are also intertwined with cloud computing, with the only exception being flash memory on their list.

Hopefully, Gartner’s recognition of the cloud computing movement will be another ‘tipping point’ for this nanscent market, and 2010 will see even greater growth and maturation of this important new IT paradigm.

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July 17, 2009

Gartner SaaS Satisfaction Survey Misleading

Last week, Gartner attempted to derail the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) movement by issuing a press release regarding its latest customer survey which found that SaaS users are “underwhelmed by their current experience of it and sense that SaaS is not quite the panacea it often promised to be.”

For some reason, it took Gartner more than six months to interpret the results of its survey of users and prospects of SaaS solutions in 333 enterprises in the U.S. and the U.K. which was conducted in December 2008. Maybe because the data didn’t say what they were hoping and it took more time to twist the results into a story that fit their reality and could generate a few headlines.

Gartner’s press release starts by stating that “SaaS is more mainstream and less controversial than ever before”, an important admission from a research firm which a few years ago said SaaS would only represent 25% of software sales by 2011.

But, the research firm goes on in its survey announcement to play the role of contrarian, which is typically held by Forrester, and suggest that all isn’t rosy in the SaaS world.

Gartner’s research vice president Ben Pring says in the release,

“Our research findings did not exactly provide a ringing endorsement of SaaS, in fact I would go as far as to say that satisfaction levels among SaaS users are little more than lukewarm. Although macroeconomic factors would seem to favor SaaS providers, almost two thirds of respondents said that they planned only to maintain their current levels of SaaS in the next two years.”

Although the overall satisfaction level of 4.74 on a 7-point scale among the SaaS users surveyed by Gartner may not have been stellar, the other data revealed in the press release suggests that these ratings are also not as bad as they look. And, other realities of the market and Gartner’s world are also worth noting to bring the survey findings into proper perspective.

Given today’s turbulent economic climate in which many organizations are actually downsizing their operations, maintaining SaaS current levels isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Instead, it demonstrates the staying power of SaaS solutions and how the more flexible pay-as-you-go SaaS subscription approach is well-suited for today’s economic uncertainties.

But, more importantly, Gartner’s press release fails to emphasize the positive news that 90% of the survey respondents are satisfied enough to maintain or expand their use of SaaS solutions, and only 5% are planning to terminate their services, with the remainder considering reducing their subscription levels.

This latter group could be motivated by downsizing in their organizations and would not have had the same flexibility if they chose a traditional on-premise application with an upfront perpetual license fee.

Anyone familar with the economics of the SaaS business knows that 90% renewal rates are not only the norm for the industry but are necessary to maintain a positive cashflow and achieve long-term profitability.

Given that Gartner’s clientele and the primary respondents to its survey are generally IT people who are still learning about the benefits of SaaS and evaluating it from a traditional set of technical criteria, it is not surprising that they might be less satisfied with the SaaS solutions than their business end-users which the bulk of today’s SaaS solutions target.

In fact, there are still plenty of situations in which IT staff are particularly unhappy with SaaS solutions which were acquired unilaterally by individual end-users or business units without IT involvement or approval.

It would be interesting to do a cross-tab analysis of Gartner’s survey results to see if there is any correlation between the low satisfaction ratings and the level of involvement the respondents had in the selection processes.

It also would have been interesting to compare the SaaS satisfaction levels with similar satisfaction ratings among those users of today’s legacy applications. My guess is that their ratings would be well below the SaaS levels, especially given their added costs and inflexibility in today’s tough economic times.

Fortunately, a growing number of IT decision-makers and organizations are recognizing that SaaS is satisfying the needs of their end-users and corporate executives, and are doing their best to help their business users select the right SaaS solutions to meet their operating objectives.

THINKstrategies’ SaaS surveys, in conjunction with Cutter Consortium, uncovered the growing acceptance of SaaS among IT professionals in 2007.

These enlighted IT professionals are also discovering that there is a rapidly expanding array of SaaS-based IT management solutions available which are making it easier for IT organizations to perform their day-to-day responsibilities.

Unlike Gartner’s survey research, THINKstrategies’ customer surveys have consistently found SaaS satisfaction levels, renewal rates and willingness to recommend at or above 90% over the past three years.

Ironically, a week after Gartner issued its SaaS survey findings it announced that the worldwide market for customer relationship management (CRM) applications grew 12.5% last year, fuelled by a 33% jump in SaaS-based solutions, which now represent 20% of the CRM market.

There is no question that as the SaaS industry grows, service quality will become diluted and customer expectations will vary more broadly.  So, there is nothing wrong with warning customers and SaaS vendors alike to remain vigilant. I issued my own warning back in 2007. And, I continue to be concerned about the quality of support in the SaaS and broader cloud computing market.

But, when these warnings border on an indictment of the overall quality of SaaS solutions and the viability of this movement, it does a disservice to a marketplace which is fundamentally changing the way organizations leverage software to achieve their business objectives and the measurable business benefits they are experiencing.