THINK IT Services

Despite the economy, election and lingering questions about whether Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is enterprise-ready, this week’s Salesforce.com Dreamforce conference drew nearly ten thousand energnetic attendees and exhibitors to celebrate the power of the ‘cloud’.

The event not only dispelled any questions about whether the SaaS movement can withstand today’s economy, it also helped to resolve the needless debate over whether there is a difference between SaaS and cloud computing.

Salesforce.com succeeded in dissolving any line of demarcation which may have existed between the SaaS and cloud computing worlds by:

• Using the terms interchangeably throughout its keynote and breakout sessions
• Unveiling a new round of cloud-based applications and platform capabilities
• Expanding its strategic alliances to include two more pivotal ‘cloud’ players

Salesforce.com’s two most significant announcements were its move into website hosting services, and new alliances with Amazon and Facebook.

The website hosting services add another layer to the company’s capabilities and extend its reach across the value-chain of customer/partner facing interactions. This new layer of services provides a clear ‘use-case’ for Salesforce.com’s VisualForce web design capabilities and fortifies Salesforce.com’s positioning as a strategic source for customers and ISV partners.

The new alliances with Amazon and Facebook are a natural extension of its rapidly growing allegiance with Google. Amazon gives Force.com users added storage and computing power capabilities to enhance and expand their SaaS solutions. The Facebook relationship could finally enable business users to effectively leverage the popular social networking site for more than simple advertising and promotional purposes.

Most importantly from Salesforce.com’s perspective, these new alliances puts the company squarely at the center of the cloud computing world just as Microsoft is beginning to describe how it will deliver its own vendor-centric cloud platform.

Salesforce.com has succeeded in pulling together the key cloud computing players who stretch across the four corners of this rapidly expanding marketplace. I expect these alliances to accelerate new mash-ups and more substantial cloud-based solutions. This foursome of cloud computing players could be viewed as the “Four Horsemen”.

Between the keynote sessions I had two days of back-to-back meetings on the show floor with a mix of SaaS vendors, customers and investors facilitated by the SaaS appointment maker solution, TimeTrade.

The exhibitors were nearly all extremely pleased with the volume of quality leads they generated during the event. As always, I also learned about a variety of subplots among the various vendors in attendance.

All of the people I met were upbeat about the overall SaaS/cloud computing market outlook long-term, but concerned about the short-term impact of the economy on deals already in their sales pipeline. Corporate indecision or company edics to put a hold on all new spending will probably delay many SaaS deals through the end of 2008.

I think this delay in sales, combined with a tightening of VC and other financing, will accelerate a shakeout in the SaaS/cloud computing industry. The most vulnerable players will be those who only offer point products with ‘nice to have’ features rather than ‘must have’ business benefits. The survivors will be those who can demonstrate their strategic value, along with their financial viability in a tough economic climate.

Despite these potential storm clouds, the prospects are still far brighter for the overall SaaS and cloud computing market than traditional, on-premise, legacy software vendors. The energy and enthusiasm of Salesforce.com’s customers at Dreamforce served as a solid confirmation of this very exciting market opportunity.

The recent debate about the viability and value of cloud computing has generated at least one outstanding analysis from a friend at AT&T, that’s right AT&T!

Joe Weinman is the VP of Strategic Solutions Sales at AT&T Global Business Services. He published a terrific blog entry last week on GigaOM which was also distributed by BusinessWeek entitled, “The 10 Laws on Cloudonomics”.

I met Joe at a utility computing conference in NYC in 2004 where we both listened to a series of CIOs discuss how they were transforming their IT operations to achieve their business objectives.

What was facinating about their presentations was that they were not talking about hardware-based utility computing models that many vendors at the time, such as IBM and HP, were pushing. Instead, the CIOs from a number of major corporations and public agencies talked about how they were deploying Software-as-a-Service (SaaS).

It was this event which propelled THINKstrategies to focus its energies on the SaaS market, along with the related area of managed services, and to create our two online directories–the SaaS and Managed Services Showplaces.

Joe’s commentary is timely because a series of Amazon and Google platform outages have raised a new round of questions about the costs and benefits of cloud computing, today’s term for the old idea of utility computing.

It is also relevant because there are still plenty of IT and business decision-makers who are trying to determine when it makes sense to adopt on-demand, SaaS solutions rather than continue to contend with traditional, on-premise software applications. This was the topic of my presentation yesterday at Serena Software’s TAG user conference.

The pivotal question for IT and business decision-makers considering SaaS and the growing array of cloud computing alternatives is the risk and return tradeoffs.

At what point do the benefits of quicker time to market, lower total cost of ownership and greater return on investment clearly outweigh the potential costs of service disruptions, loss of proprietary data, or limited customization capabilities?

Helping customers perform these cost-benefit analyses and SaaS/cloud computing vendors communicate the value of their on-demand solutions has become a 24/7 campaign for me.

The recent service outages experienced by Amazon and Google have raised additional concerns about the reliability of these services in particular, and the concept of ‘cloud computing’ and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) in general.

In my last blog entry, I suggested that the term ‘cloud computing’ may be gaining widespread acceptance but could also be preventing many mainstream business decision-makers from getting their heads around the idea of utilizing web-based services to meet their corporate needs.

The faceless personas of Amazon and Google’s cloud computing services doesn’t help the situation. While traditional telephone support services have left a lot to be desired, they at least give customers a opportunity to seek help from a real person.

Neither Google or Amazon offer this form of customer support for their cloud computing services. Given the modest price for their cloud computing services, it is easy to understand why this form of support doesn’t exist. These vendors, and others, may be planning to add fee-based customer support services later based on the level of demand for cloud computing services.

But, by omitting a customer support capability from their offerings at this stage they are running the risk of driving away customers who don’t want to put up with continuing service quality issues. They are also tarnishing the image of the overall cloud computing and SaaS movement, and could disrupt the growth of this market.

It is time for customers to ask questions about the quality of cloud computing and SaaS vendors’ customer support capabilities in the same way they have been asking about the reliability, security, customization and integration capabilities of their on-demand services.

Maybe a measure of the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) movement’s success is the growing attention billing systems are now getting from a variety of sources.

Last week, Jamcracker unveiled its new WebStores which will provide front- and back-end service delivery infrastructure, billing and settlement, customer administration and support services for traditional channel companies who want to add on-demand applications to their existing software, hardware and service portfolios.

Today, OpSource announced that it has acquired privately-held and Dublin-based LeCayla Technologies, a provider of billing and customer on-boarding software for SaaS and Web-based applications, to strengthen OpSource’s Web application delivery platform. (Click here to read THINKstrategies’ 2006 profile of LeCayla, or listen to my 2007 podcast with LeCayla’s CEO, Conor Halpin.)

These are just the latest moves by a widening array of players who are offering storefront solutions to make it easier for SaaS vendors to sell and customers to buy their on-demand solutions.

My friend and colleague, Phil Wainewright, recently posted a blog examining Amazon’s DevPay billing and account management service aimed at making it easy for developers to get paid for applications they build on Amazon Web Services.

Why all the attention on a mundane topic like billing?

Now that SaaS is gaining broad-based market acceptance and adoption of SaaS-oriented solutions is accelerating, SaaS vendors are becoming more concerned about how to properly charge for their services and track customer usage.

But, billing for on-demand services isn’t like billing for traditional products. Unlike the static nature of traditional products, on-demand services is a high-transaction and highly dynamic business with lots of moving parts, such as varying packaging options and pricing schedules, never mind variable usage rates and measures. On-demand service providers, including SaaS vendors, are discovering that this business requires a sophisticated billing engine to successfully process transactions.

Most on-demand service providers, especially start-up SaaS vendors, cannot afford to build these kinds of systems themselves. They are operating in a highly competitive environment in which price sensitivity and customer abandonment are a constant concern. They have to focus their energies and limited financial resources on developing superior solutions rather than worrying about front- and back-office operations. So, they are looking for turnkey billing and customer management systems from third-parties which can be easily adopted and economically administered.

In response, SaaS platform players are extending their portfolios beyond software development tools and partner ecosystems to include billing and customer management systems.

Salesforce.com recognized this need and business opportunity in 2006 when it unveiled its AppStore idea. Although its announcement was among the first at the time, the company has said little about this capability since preferring to emphasize the broad-based capabilities of its Force.com platform.

Others are now stepping into the void with their own solutions. Specialists like Aria Systems are being fortified by VCs. eBay may direct some of its vast payment processing capabilities toward the SaaS market. And, traditional payment processing players, like AmEx and MasterCard, might move into the market via acquisition.

As the SaaS market matures, the winners will be those companies which have the most efficient and effective transaction management systems, as well as the strongest SaaS offerings.

Since the holidays are traditionally a time for people to take stock of the year past and offer their new year forecasts, here are my top ten predictions why the shift from packaged products to Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), utility computing and managed services will accelerate in 2008:

1. Services are Recession Proof: Escalating oil prices, the uncertain political landscape and faltering financial institutions beset with the aftereffects of the sub-prime lending debacle could mean a tough year for the economy. In this tenuous climate, consumer and executive confidence could decline, leading to an economic slowdown. As a result, many companies could hold back on their capital investments to mitigate their risks. The ability to adopt on-demand services on a pay-as-you-go basis will be a perfect sourcing strategy for businesses seeking greater cost-controls and flexibility.

2. Everyone’s Going Virtual: Most industry pundits and participants view virtualization as a technology trend, but it is also a business trend. Employees are increasingly working outside the four walls of a traditional office. Gen Y workers are always on the move and online. Traditional, on-premise applications and centralized servers sitting behind a firewall can’t effectively serve today’s mobile workers. SaaS and managed services are perfectly suited for these new, virtual business requirements.

3. Amazon, IBM and Google Bet on Utility Computing. After experimenting with its Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) for the past year, Amazon has found plenty of demand for its computing power on-demand platform from startups, as well as established companies seeking a ‘sandbox’ for their new initiatives. Amazon is now confident it can deliver its computing power in a reliable and cost-effective fashion to a broader market of business users. So, expect more aggressive PR and marketing efforts to promote and sell this powerful utility computing service.

IBM Blue Tune: IBM originated the term on-demand and then walked away from the utility computing market seeking new opportunities among the avatars. When Amazon proved that the utility computing concept could become a reality, IBM repackaged its autonomous computing ideas in the form of a new ‘blue cloud’ initiative. Big Blue will push the idea hard in 2008.

The GooglePlex Makes It Move. Google is tired of sitting on the sidelines while Amazon’s success and IBM’s new ‘blue cloud’ initiative, Google has initiated a PR campaign to promote its ‘cloud’ computing capabilities and strategies. The GooglePlex has long been considered the prototype for a new large-scale computing architecture. Now Google’s incredibly scalable and economical computing engine is getting the attention of business pubs like BusinessWeek, the Wall Street Journal and other mainstream pubs.

4. Nick Carr Returns: In truth, he never left us. It was Carr who gave utility computing a major push with his seminal article in the Harvard Business Review and follow-on book questioning whether IT mattered. Despite venomous criticisms from many IT pubs and professionals, Carr became a popular speaker at corporate events because his message resonated with business executives and end-users. Now, he is putting the finishing touches on his second book, The Big Switch: Rewiring the World, from Edison to Google, which will be published on January 7, 2008. Although IT folks love to hate him, Carr has never lost his luster among corporate executives and end-users who agree with his basic premise that IT is a needless hassle and should be as easy as electricity and as reliable as a utility.

5. SaaS Solves SOX: A year ago, most publicly traded companies and other large-scale enterprises rejected the idea of SaaS because they thought they needed to take greater responsibility for their own compliance requirements. Now, they view the process controls, auditability and offsite hosting features common in most SaaS applications as a perfect solution for their Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) needs. As a result, enterprise adoption of SaaS will accelerate.

6. Managed Services 3.0, Unified Communications Services and Service Automation: In the 80s, managed services were really outsourcing agreements offered by carriers to their largest corporate customers. In the 90s, a new generation of standalone MSPs promised managed services for SMBs. Neither model succeeded.

Today, we are entering a new age of managed services. Managed Services 3.0 combines the experience of the past with powerful new technologies to respond to growing customer demand. Cisco Systems will be pushing its IP communications and WebEx capabilities hard, while Microsoft promotes the virtues of its various “software plus services” solutions. The two are on a collision course in the unified messaging and communications market, but that will mean that they will each spend plenty on market education and channel sales programs.

At the same time, Dell will be leveraging its SilverBack Technologies and Everdream acquisitions to deliver a new set of automated, remote desktop and server management capabilities through channel partners and direct support services. Expect to hear more from HP and others.

7. Carriers and Channel Companies Find Success With New Services: Carriers have been perplexed about how to package, price and promote profitable managed services. VARs have been afraid that SaaS would ‘dis-intermediate’ them by eliminating their consulting and custom application development business. Carriers now see an opportunity to deliver an integrated package of IT managed services and SaaS business solutions to add value to their commoditized dial-tone services. Channel companies are also discovering that there are still consulting and customization opportunities in the SaaS market. As a result, carriers and channel companies will lend their marketing and sales support to managed services and SaaS.

8. Failure Doesn’t Matter: NaviSite suffered an extended outage in November and the on-demand services movement didn’t miss a beat. The trade press is now looking for horror stories rather than success stories regarding SaaS and managed services, but the vast majority of stories have been positive. In fact, my third annual SaaS survey in conjunction with Cutter Consortium found 100% satisfaction among the companies currently using on-demand software services. The upcoming SaaScon conference will highlight some of these customer success stories. THINKstrategies will also spotlight these stories throughout 2008.

9. IT Discovers Services are the Solution: In the past, the IT department was the biggest barrier to managed services and SaaS adoption. Many IT professionals were afraid these on-demand solutions would eliminate their jobs. Now, a growing proportion of IT people see managed services and SaaS as a way to out-task mundane work or overcome complex application/technology deployment and maintenance responsibilities. As they learn to take advantage of these on-demand solutions, IT departments will finally be able to put their daily firefights aside and focus on addressing the strategic needs of their business users.

10. Wall Street Buys Into Services: Some of the most successful IPOs of 2007 were in the SaaS market. Wall Street loves the predictability of subscription services and now that it has a solid set of market ‘comps’ to measure business success in the services market, it will be encouraging more privately held companies to go through the IPO door. At the same time, private equity funds will be encouraging publicly traded software companies to go private to enable them to shift to a SaaS model without the public market pressures. And, the investment bankers will be pushing a wide array of M&A activity. Expect the offshore IT/business process outsourcers (IT/BPO) and business services companies to buy SaaS vendors. Look for more consolidation in the managed services market.

Bonus Driver of Services Growth in 2008: THINKstrategies will be expanding its consulting and marketing programs aimed at educating IT/business decision-makers about the benefits of on-demand services, and continuing to help software and technology providers develop and deliver successful service solutions. Stay tuned to the SaaS and Managed Services Showplaces for more information and insight about these new programs and features.